مجال التميز
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تميز دراسي وبحثي
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البحوث المنشورة
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البحث (1):
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عنوان البحث:
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The Total Social Costs Of Constructing
And Operating A High-Speed Rail Line Using A Case Study Of The Riyadh-Dammam
Corridor, Saudi Arabia
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رابط إلى البحث:
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Click here
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تاريخ النشر:
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27/06/2019
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موجز عن البحث:
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Constructing High-Speed Rail technology
between the Saudi Arabian cities starts raising many challenging issues of a
different nature ranging from technical to operational, which require huge
investments in infrastructure, operations, and maintenance. However, this
paper develops a new methodology to calculate the total social costs of
building a new HSR worldwide and applies this using the case study of the
Riyadh-Dammam corridor in Saudi Arabia. This is done through a Spreadsheet
Cost Model mainly based on Microsoft Excel that includes operator cost, user
cost, and external cost. In order to determine the total social costs of a
Riyadh-Dammam HSR line, the annual travel demand is forecasted of 13,205,212
passengers in the first year of operation. In this case, the gravity demand
model is used to forecast the demand, as a function of independent variables
for the cities alongside with the proposed line such as the population, GDP
per capita, the generalized journey time, unemployment rate, years since opening
the corridor, and the dummy variable. As a result, the total social costs of
constructing and operating the proposed HSR line is €1,090,106,913 per year
resulting from the sum of the following categories. First, the total operator
cost (OC) is €859,797,307 per year, which is mainly based on the total
infrastructure and rolling stock costs of €750,852,759 per year and
€108,944,548 per year, respectively. Second, the total user cost is
€216,769,247 per year resulting from the sum of total annual passenger access/egress
time, waiting time, and in-vehicle time. Finally, the total external
environmental cost is €13,540,359 per year resulting from the sum of average
costs of noise and air pollution, climate change, and accident.
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المؤتمرات العلمية:
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المؤتمر (1):
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عنوان المؤتمر:
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International Congress On
High-Speed Rail: Technologies And Long Term Impacts
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تاريخ الإنعقاد:
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4-6 October 2017
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مكان الإنعقاد:
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Ciudad Real, Spain
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طبيعة المشاركة:
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Paper presentation
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عنوان المشاركة:
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High Speed Railway In Saudi
Arabia: Lessons To Be Learnt From The Spanish Experience
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ملخص المشاركة:
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With 25 years of experience Spain has the
largest Speed Railway (HSR) across Europe. Taking advantage of this
experience a Spanish consortium was awarded with €6.7 Billion to construct,
operate and maintain the second phase of the Haramain HS line in Saudi
Arabia, as well as the supply of trains and their maintenance for a period of
12 years. For the transport and geographic characteristics of Saudi Arabia,
the Spanish HSR is a good example to look at. A comparison between of the
main topics that can influence HS development and demand is done including
geography, economy, institutional & legal framework and transport
characteristics. Even though this kind of comparison was difficult due to a
different culture and the development of the country some lessons can be
obtained. First, the know-how gained by construction firms and infrastructure
manager has helped drive down costs and is key to overcome the challenge of
HSR under extreme climate circumstances. Second, although HS demand mostly
relies on the evolution of the GDP and the transport system competing with
train, Train Operating Companies have control over variables influencing it
(commercial speed, prices or frequencies) and therefore must have freedom
adapt its strategy to increase demand and revenues. Third, there are
difficulties to predict demand and although rapid traffic growths can be
expected it seems doubtful to reach 60 million users per annum in these 12
years. Finally, due to the high risks involved in the project a greater
understanding by the parties of each other position is crucial to its
success: Saudi Arabia will gain expertise in the development and operation of
HS and will be able to attract international funding in the future, whereas
Spanish companies will benefit by improving its technology and the
possibility of exporting its know-how to other countries.
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المؤتمر (2):
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عنوان المؤتمر:
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The 24th International
Conference On Magnetically Levitated Systems And Linear Drives, MAGLEV 2018
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تاريخ الإنعقاد:
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5-8 September 2018
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مكان الإنعقاد:
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St. Petersburg, Russia
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طبيعة المشاركة:
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Paper presentation
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عنوان المشاركة:
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The Total Social Costs Of
Constructing And Operating A MAGLEV Line Using A Case Study Of The Riyadh Dammam
Corridor, Saudi Arabia
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ملخص المشاركة:
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Background: Introducing Magnetic Levitation
(Maglev) technology in a developing country is a big challenge that needs
huge investments in infrastructure, operations and maintenance. Background
information about the development of Maglev worldwide to date is included.
Aim: Determine a methodology to estimate the full cost of travel and provide
insights into the working model developed to include the calculations of the
total social costs of building a new Maglev line for the Riyadh-Dammam
corridor in Saudi Arabia and understand in what circumstances it is a
suitable technology to use. Methods: The Spreadsheet Total Cost Model (STCM)
is used to determine the calculations of operator costs, user costs, and
environmental costs. However, the operator costs are related to
infrastructure construction and maintenance costs, and costs associated with
the acquisition, operation and maintenance of Maglev rolling stock. The user
costs are dependent on the journey time, including access/egress time,
waiting time, and invehicle time. The value of time is considered in order to
get the user costs calculated. The external costs include air pollution,
noise pollution, accident, and climate change per passenger-km. Results: The
travel demand has to be forecasted in order to determine the total social
costs, using the elasticity approach between the proposed HSR and Maglev
lines in terms of their number of trips and the generalised journey times. In
addition, the generalised journey time is based on the in-vehicle time and
service interval penalty. The Maglev system is operated at the capacity limit
and the change in service is therefore forecasted to increase the Maglev
demand by 24.6 % (3.25 million passengers). In terms of the total
infrastructure costs, the infrastructure construction and maintenance costs
are included and computed to be about € 835.4 million per year, using the
capital recovery factor (0.06) based on 35 years of operation and a 5 %
social discount rate. The acquiring, operating, and maintaining train’s unit cost
is included in the calculation of rolling stock to achieve results of € 22.4
million, € 22.5 million, and € 40.9 million, respectively. In terms of the
user costs, the access/egress time is computed as of 33 minutes, using the
car, while the in-vehicle travel time and waiting time are resulted of 61.8
minutes and 7.8 minutes, respectively. The external environmental costs are
based on accidents, and climate changes of € 8.87 million per year and € 8.13
million per year, respectively. However, the total social costs of Maglev
line are computed as € 1.18 billion for 16.45 million passengers per year.
This gives an average social cost of € 71.9 per passenger. The comparable fi
gures for High-Speed Rail (HSR) are € 1.10 billion for 13.21 million
passengers per year, giving an average social cost of € 83 per passenger.
Conclusion: In conclusion, the Riyadh-Dammam Maglev system introduces a new
intercity system into Saudi Arabia and brings new competition in the
intercity transit market as a part of the future transport developments in
the country. The average social cost for HSR is around 16 % higher than
Maglev – but that is more proven technology.
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المؤتمر (3):
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عنوان المؤتمر:
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Railway Engineering 2019
Conference
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تاريخ الإنعقاد:
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03/07/2019
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مكان
الإنعقاد:
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Edinburgh, United Kingdom
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طبيعة المشاركة:
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Paper presentation
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عنوان المشاركة:
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Modelling Of Intercity Transport
Mode Choice Behavior: Case Study Of Riyadh-Dammam Corridor, Saudi Arabia.
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ملخص المشاركة:
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With respect to mode choice decisions in
intercity public transport journeys, understanding a traveller’s preferences
and behaviour is necessary from a transit planning and demand modelling point
of view in the situation of assessments of the socio-economic of new
projected public transit infrastructure. Travel times and costs, as well as
service frequency, are becoming increasingly relevant for current intercity
passenger transport modes, especially with increasing demand and rising fuel
prices. In this paper, the main aim is to determine the demand for a new
intercity service. The objective of this research is to obtain knowledge on
how different variables influence the potential of alternative transport
service types for the proposed corridor. These variables include service
attributes such travel cost, travel time, and frequency, as well as
traveller- and trip-related variables (i.e. trip purpose, gender, occupation,
age, etc.). In order to determine the influence of presented factors on the
potential of the transport modes, a stated preference survey was conducted on
the Riyadh-Dammam corridor, Saudi Arabia. It was mainly based on disaggregate
choice models with nested structure. The experiment examines the competition
between the current transport modes (car, bus, plane, classic rail) on the
case study corridor and possible new modes such as High Speed Rail and
Hyperloop that are presented in this study. In this case, respondents needed
to choose one alternative out of three in the first experiment and four in
the second experiment. However, the Multinomial logit models are estimated
for those with and without the availability of a car, in order to forecast
the future demand for rail-based intercity travel. For the analysis, the
alternative-specific conditional logit (asclogit) model is used, and mainly
based on a set of three attributes, namely travel cost, time, and frequency,
that are considered as explanatory factors for transport mode choice.
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الرابط:
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Click here
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المؤتمر (4):
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عنوان المؤتمر:
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Universities’ Transport Study
Group – 51st Annual Conference
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تاريخ الإنعقاد:
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08/07/2019
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مكان
الإنعقاد:
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Leeds, United Kingdom
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طبيعة المشاركة:
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Paper presentation
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عنوان المشاركة:
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High-Speed Rail Forecasting
Demand Model, Using Riyadh-Dammam Corridor, Saudi Arabia As A Case Study
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ملخص المشاركة:
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The main purpose of this paper is to
develop a gravity model in order to forecast the level of demand for
potential HSR corridors worldwide and apply it to the proposed new HSR line
between Riyadh- Dammam cities in Saudi Arabia (about 412 km). In addition,
multiple linear regression analysis is undertaken, using aggregate, pooled
cross-sectional and time-series data. In this case, demand level forecasts
are mainly based on independent socioeconomic variables for the cities
included in the proposed corridor such as the population, mean GDP per
capita, number of trains per day, mean speed, and the dummy variable for
month. Observed historical demand is used as the dependent variable in this
model, and is based on combined data from the existing North-South and
Riyadh-Dammam corridors to include eight stations (Riyadh, Hofuf, Abqaiq,
Dammam, Majmaah, Qassim, Hail, and Aljouf) in the years between 2010 and
2018. From the literature review, it was found that the forecasting of travel
demand is an important component in the planning and appraisal stage of any
transport infrastructure project worldwide. The main strategy of forecasting
intercity travel demand is to develop a series of models that can establish
predictable relationships between demographic characteristics, physical
systems, travel behaviour, and activity distributions. This paper will
provide new demand estimates using models calibrated for Saudi Arabia. In
this case, SPSS Software is used to determine the coefficients variables for
the forecasting travel demand model. By applying a locally developed model,
the preliminary predicted demand for the Riyadh-Dammam HSR line will increase
by 16.42% and 32.55% after 10 and 20 years of opening in 2040 and 2050,
respectively. In conclusion, the development of HSR in an emerging country
such as Saudi Arabia could be a positive investment, especially given
increasing population levels.
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